Philosophy
Intelligence is only as good as its confidence score.
The problem with news
Most planning teams get their market intelligence from news articles, analyst reports, and WhatsApp groups. These have three fatal flaws: no confidence score, no source attribution, and no recommended action. They are information, not intelligence.
What a signal is
A signal is a structured, confidence-scored, action-oriented alert delivered to a specific planner at the right time. It names the event, the date, the confidence score, the number of independent sources that confirmed it, and the specific action the planner should take. That is all it does. It does not editorialise.
Why we suppress signals below 70%
A signal below 70% confidence is more likely to cause a poor planning decision than to prevent one. The cost of acting on a false signal in supply chain — an unnecessary procurement, a premature inventory build, a logistics contract broken — is often higher than the cost of missing the original event. We chose suppression over noise.
The footnote is the most important sentence
Every NaradCue signal card carries a footnote: "Confidence score reflects source reliability × recency × cross-validation across independent sources. Scores below 70% are suppressed." We put this on every card — not in the terms of service — because we believe planners should always know how their intelligence was generated.
On source independence
Cross-validation requires sources to be genuinely independent. A commodity exchange, a government filing, and a trade publication citing each other are not three sources — they are one source with two amplifiers. NaradCue's source graph maps source relationships to ensure cross-validation uses genuinely independent signals.